Monthly Outlook

Generally it will stay rather changeable across the UK but temperatures are likely to remain above average. Drier and calmer interludes are more likely in northern and eastern parts at times.

Temperatures may drop slightly over the weekend particularly in Northern Ireland, Scotland and north-east England but will remain above average with a brisk north-easterly flow developing. On Sunday high pressure could shift over Northern Ireland and Scotland. Scattered showers, some of them heavy and thundery, are expected especially on Saturday, with the focus in the south-west and west and in the mountainous regions of the UK such as the Scottish Highlands. Under the increasing influence of high pressure, the showers on Sunday will tend to be more isolated.

Similar conditions could continue early next week, with high pressure near Scotland shifting towards Scandinavia and low pressure to the south and south-east of the UK. Temperatures are likely to remain above average although they will drop slightly.

A new Atlantic low-pressure system with its fronts could approach from the west from Tuesday bringing heavy rain, especially over the west and north-west of the UK but rather showery conditions elsewhere.

Following the passage of the low-pressure systems there is a chance that new high pressure will spread from Azores High and move across parts of the UK by Thursday, with persistent low pressure near the south-east or east of the UK. The latter may lead to heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly in southern and eastern areas. They'll be accompanied by brisk winds.

Towards the end of next week high pressure could shift over northern parts of the UK or into the North Sea bringing higher temperatures and drier conditions, particularly in northern and central areas. Areas of low pressure could remain south or south-east of the UK and lead to some showers, at least in south and south-east England.

The weather models offer different solutions towards the end of May. Some tend to keep areas of low pressure south of the UK and it's then more likely that the high pressure will be over or near Scandinavia and extend to at least the northern parts of the UK. The latter could provide slightly drier and calmer conditions at times, particularly in northern and eastern areas.

The other option is that the high pressure shifts west or north-west of the UK towards Greenland and the low pressure moves more over north-west and northern Europe at the start of the week. This would lead to a cooler and windier north-westerly flow with showery conditions at times. Temperatures could fall to near average levels especially in Scotland.

In the second week of June high pressure to the north-west of the UK and low pressure over north-west Europe could persist, with a cooler north-westerly flow initially.

Later that week the low pressure could shift west of Iceland, with the renewed build-up of high pressure over Scandinavia. This would signal a continuation of the rather changeable but slightly warmer conditions with a more westerly or south-westerly flow developing. However, north-eastern and eastern parts of the UK could see slightly drier and calmer conditions as the Scandinavian high pressure extends westwards.

By the third week of June conditions could continue to be quite changeable on average as low pressure near Iceland spreads towards the UK. There is also the possibility of areas of low pressure moving generally north of the UK, allowing the high pressure from the Azores High to spread across the UK and parts of western continental Europe. This would be a warmer, calmer and drier pattern on average.

Will more summery and drier conditions bring about changes or will they only prevail later in June?